According to Cowen, if Bitcoin continues its downward trajectory after being rejected by the upper trend line, it could fall by as much as 32%, reaching the lower trend line, which has been consistently generating lower lows on the weekly chart. He predicts that if this trend continues into December, Bitcoin's price could hit $42,000.
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Cowen emphasizes that the $42,000 level is significant because it aligns with the 100-week moving average. By November or December, the 100-week moving average is expected to reach this price point. Historically, Bitcoin has tested this moving average during previous cycles, such as in Q4 of 2019 and Q1 of 2016, suggesting that it could be a critical support level if Bitcoin enters another bearish phase.
Cowen further warns that if Bitcoin is unable to break its current lower high structure, it could mirror price action from previous cycles, where the bulls eventually gave up, leading to further declines. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,760, but the next few weeks could be crucial in determining whether the bulls can regain control.