Bitcoin's Traditional Cycle Theory Declared "Dead" by Top Analyst
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Changing Market Dynamics: Holders vs. Traders
According to Ju, the traditional Bitcoin cycle, often linked to the halving events, no longer holds the same sway. He now believes that short-term trading has become "pointless" due to the overwhelming presence of long-term holders in the market. A key observation is that in the current cycle, "old whales sell to new long-term whales," primarily referring to corporate treasury companies, rather than the previous pattern where large holders would offload their Bitcoin to retail investors. Ju openly admitted that his earlier miscalculation stemmed from underestimating this profound shift towards institutional adoption.
His revised perspective is partly evidenced by Bitcoin's recent price action. In early April, Ju had predicted an end to the bull cycle with Bitcoin around $80,000, suggesting no further significant rally. However, BTC defied this prediction, surging to $112,000 in May and reaching an all-time high of $123,236 in July. This 54% gain effectively demonstrated that traditional cycle-based predictions might no longer accurately capture Bitcoin's evolving market behavior.
Divergent Views on Bitcoin's Future Path
While Ju champions a new understanding of Bitcoin's market, not all analysts agree. Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity maintains a contrasting stance, asserting that Bitcoin continues to adhere "very closely" to its established four-year cycle. This divergence in expert opinion highlights the complex and often unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market, underscoring that even as new narratives emerge, older theories still retain their proponents. Investors are now left to weigh these differing perspectives as Bitcoin navigates uncharted territory driven by unprecedented institutional interest.