The current attempt to take control of the historical range of $17.5-$19.5 has a high chance of success. First, buyers were still able to update the historical high. This happened without the use of high trading volumes, which threatened the formation of a false breakdown. However, 4 months have passed since the update, and sellers still did not dare to counterattack. All attempts by sellers to take control of the market are accompanied by minimal volumes. This fact shows that there are few large players in the market who are ready to sell KCS at current prices.
Loss of control over the range of $17.5-$19.5 and fixing the price below it will signal the readiness to continue the sluggish fall wave with the final target of $10. However, even with a 40% correction, the price will be within acceptable limits for the beginning of a new growth wave.
Analyzing the KCS price movement on the daily timeframe, you can see that the token has not yet left the fall channel. Starting in February 2022, the KCS price is moving in the consolidation range of $17.5-$22. almost all of March the KCS price is near the bottom line of consolidation. The willingness of buyers to keep the lower limit is clearly visible on the daily candle from 24 February. Although sellers managed to briefly break the $17.5 mark, the daily candle closed higher.
In addition, a false breakdown occurred at increased volumes, which shows the mood of buyers. Therefore, the probability of a price rebound from the $17.5 range and a test mark of $22 is our main scenario at the moment. However, it is safe to say that the beginning of a new fall wave is only after breaking and fixing the KCS price above $22. The alternative scenario will currently take effect after buyers lose control of the $17.5 mark. In this case, we will expect the KCS price to fall to $14.
No signals of a sharp change of initiative in the KCSBTC market were also found. The price on the weekly timeframe is moving within the consolidation range and is moving closer to the critical range of 0.00048. This range has been under the control of sellers since May 2018. If you carefully analyze the nature of the KCSBTC price consolidation from November 2021, you can see the weakness of sellers. Buyers do not allow the price to be in the lower limit of consolidation for a long time. This is evidenced by aggressive pins on the candles.
However, on top of consolidation the price spends a lot of time. This fact shows that buyers are willing to greedily buy KCS with the slightest local corrections. Therefore, the probability of breaking this consolidation up, and the continuation of trend growth with the first target of 0.0008 is our main scenario. This scenario will lose relevance if the KCSBTC breaks the 0.00037 mark. In this case, the initiative of buyers will be destroyed and investors should expect the price to fall to 0.00026.