Compare the April wave of fall with the January one. In January, sellers managed to lower the KCS price by 35% thanks to one weekly candle. It took sellers 6 weeks to achieve the same result in April. In addition, the reluctance of investors to give their medium-term and long-term positions on KCS is noticeable, and the fact of updating the local low. On 9 May 2022, sellers updated the local low from January 2022. Though, after this, the price fall did not continue due to stop orders from buyers. This means that most KCS investors were holders and for them, there was no clear signal to sell. In the worst-case scenario in the cryptocurrency market, we allow the price to fall by 15%.
Analyzing the price movement of KCS on the daily timeframe, you can find a striking example of the failure of the triangle pattern with a flat bottom. In fact, since January 2022, the KCS price has been in a correctional wave (correction of the fall impulse of November 2021). Hopes of breaking the triangle up were not so high that as a result, the KCS market received a sharp aggressive turn to the liquidity zone, where the rebound began in January. Given the fact that from the range of $13.7, buyers failed to update the previous high, we do not think that the second attempt will be more successful.
Therefore, the probability of the KCS price crashing below $13.7 is quite high. For the medium-term growth trend, you should expect a set of positions in the range of $10-$13. If from this range a weak rebound begins to form at the same small volumes as now - it is worth getting rid of KCS and expecting a global correction of this cryptocurrency.
And on the weekly chart of KCSBTC price, the situation is still positive. The price is pressed to an important range of 0.00048. So, sellers cannot make a deep correction in the global timeframe. The price is kept within a narrow consolidation. If buyers are able to keep the mark 0.00041 - we will expect a new attempt by buyers to update the historical high. Otherwise, a negative scenario is realized - the KCS price correction by 40%.